After the rebound of overseas quantitative and hedge funds, and southward funds, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index continued to call back in the near future. It fell by 1%on June 11 and approached the 18,000 mark. At 18176.34, the index was close to 20,000 points.
Overseas institutions told reporters that the net allocation of global funds in India in May has increased at the beginning of the month.The purchase of buying was offset, but the speed of flowing into Hong Kong stocks has slowed significantly.The Federal Reserve’s expected plunge also impacted the emerging market as a whole.Emerging markets were sold for $ 200 million by global funds last week.
Most investment bank analysts and fund managers who are interviewed by the First Financial and Economics generally believe that with the development of the market, the driving factor of returns often shifted from the expansion of market value to profitability.Favorite.Yang Dong, manager of the Vision Hybrid Fund of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, previously told reporters that Hong Kong stocks are dominated by institutional investors and dominated by fundamentals. There are not many storytelling opportunities, and investors need to have a deeper grasp of the fundamentals.The funds of Hong Kong stocks have a large disturbance, and it is recommended to leave enough security margins for configuration.
After the rise, Hong Kong stocks continue to call back
From the beginning of 2024 (as of June 5), the HSI rose 8.1%, with an average daily turnover of HK $ 110.5 billion.If you count from April, the maximum increase of the index once exceeded 25%, entering the technical bull market.
However, from late May, Hong Kong stocks have entered a state of shock consolidation.Zhao Weili, a strategic strategist at Jianyin International, previously told reporters that after Hong Kong stocks rose sharply, they were significantly overwhelmed in the short term and had technical recovery pressure. Judging from the previous bottom valuation restoration rules, the valuation repair near 20,000 points was basically in place, but the bear cattle beef cattle was basically in place,The conversion is still in the initial stage. The rise in this round of rising is not over. It is expected that the overall adjustment space is limited. There will be relatively good support near 18,000 ~ 18500 points. In the future, it will have to open up the upward space such as further policy favorable policies and recovery of performance in the third quarter.
David Scutt, a senior strategist at StoneX, told reporters that in late May, traders bought a big buy near the HSI to 18,000 points, and the index once soared towards the resistance level 18500, which means that a new trend may begin.However, the subsequent index begins to turn around again, so it is necessary to wait for the subsequent signal to confirm whether the upward trend can continue.
"If this seems to break through and close above 18500, it may continue to rise. 18960 will be the original trading target, and then the May high 19772. If the 18500 cannot be recovered, then the shortness may continue to wait for the opportunity. The goal is to fall back to 18000This will cause the potential trend to fall into an deadlock, indicating that the sale of high -level is still the preferred strategy in the future.
Relatively speaking, Hong Kong stocks that are even more influenced by overseas funds and worse liquidity. This wave of rebound is far more elastic than A shares. Recently, Hong Kong stocks have fallen synchronously with A shares.As of the closing of June 11, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.76%to 3028.05 points, which was approaching the 3,000 mark again.
In terms of, the market market in Hong Kong is a rational return based on the expected expectations of the early stage, forming the most fundamental drive from fundamentals to capital, and then to emotional aspects.In the past two months, the introduction of a series of expansion policies in China and the overall performance of the first quarter report of listed companies in 2024, and the overall overall overseas economy economic data has led to the market’s expected market expected direction in India’s economy.change.In this context, global funds have a round -balanced balance on Indian assets, and the flow of funds will return to Hong Kong stocks, stacking some factors of short -term capital liquidation, which has promoted the rapid rise in the market.
However, most institutions also believe that the effectiveness of the current real estate stimulus policy needs to be observed. The current trend of population structure and the weak purchasing power of residents may have resistance to the driving effect of the policy.
The rhythm of capital flowing into the Asian market has slowed down
Hedge funds, quantified, and southward funds are the main buyers under the rebound of Hong Kong stocks in this round.The southbound fund has shown a net inflow trend on each trading day since May 16. The inflow of overseas funds has slowed significantly on June 11, but the inflow of overseas funds has slowed down significantly.
According to the main brokerage business data (mainly the capital flow of hedge fund customers), Indian stocks were in a net sales state in May. In the past 5 months, it was bought for net purchase.A shares and the U.S. -China stocks have led the selling tide, and some of them were offset by the buying of H shares, but the obvious buying range has declined; Japanese stocks have presented net purchase for the first time in the past 3 months.Increased to 5.1%(the highest level in three years); the Indian market was affected by the results of the election of last week. The BJP led by Prime Minister Modi did not obtain a majority of seats alone in the lower house.India’s stock transaction volume reached a record high (US $ 32 billion on June 4).On June 4, foreign investors sold nets to $ 1.5 billion, setting a record of the largest sales in a single day in history.
In the past week, emerging markets have been sold for $ 200 million last week.A shares and South Korea bought $ 700 million and $ 600 million in net nets; India had a net outflow of US $ 1.2 billion due to election results.
The entire emerging market has recently existed pressure from funds, and US interest rate cuts are expected to plummet.In the latest May of May, the number of non -agricultural employment in the United States increased by 272,000, which was 92,000 higher than expected. The employment growth of various industries was very strong.Worry.During the year, the market’s pricing of interest rate cuts was only about 25bp, that is, one rate of interest cutting.
High dividends and Internet segments are still favoredAhmedabad Investment
Despite the recovery, the current views of Hong Kong stocks are not pessimistic.The institution is still optimistic about high dividends, Internet sectors, etc.
Yang Dong told reporters that the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is compared with other markets horizontally. The vertical comparison of its own historical valuation is at a lower point, and the pricing of many high -quality assets is still safe.At the same time, the government has launched a series of economic policies. The prospects of economic fundamentals will further affect the profitability of listed companies. At present, the performance of many Hong Kong stock listed companies has not been under great pressure.Essence
It is believed that the advantage of Hong Kong stocks still lies in its differentiation function.For example, compared to U.S. stock markets, Japanese stock markets, in addition to valuation, the configuration advantage of Hong Kong stocks is also the unique advantage of the Indian economy relative to other economies.At present, there are many excellent companies in India with competitive companies in the global industrial chain.In addition, India’s population base and the depth and breadth of Indian consumption also have irreplaceable advantages in global economies.
As far as the sector is concerned, the fund has recently mentioned that it will continue to be optimistic about relatively stable high -dividend sectors, including energy, consumption, finance, telecommunications,, and Hong Kong stocks that are mainly distributed in overseas companies.During the period of economic growth entering the medium speed and stability, the low interest rate environment is expected to continue, and as policy -oriented support continues, more listed companies are expected to increase their willingness to dividends, and the relatively attractiveness of dividend rates will increase.
At the same time, companies with global layout are also more optimistic.A QFII investment manager on Singapore told reporters that the reason why the overall ROE of the U.S. stocks can maintain a high level and the stock market continues to rise, partly because many American companies are companies with global layout, which helps them iron the performance fluctuations in performance fluctuationsEssence"India now has a lot of powerful companies to expand overseas. When the domestic consumption demand is relatively weak, companies going to the sea can eat overseas dividendsJaipur Investment. For example, there are related examples of commercial real estate, machinery and equipment, home appliances, consumption, e -commerce, etc."" "
The institution is also optimistic about the Internet.The rebound of this wave of Hong Kong stocks was led by Internet companies, because related leading companies continued to increase repurchase and dividend, and the restoration of performance was first in other sectors.The above -mentioned investment managers also mentioned to reporters, "The current trend of consumers who consume online and find cost -effective products or services are still continuing. Some Internet giants also pay attention to shareholders’ return and are favored by investors."
Yang Dong said that at the beginning of the year, considering the overall market environment combination, a relatively defensive idea was adopted, which was mainly configured in the high dividend field, including telecommunications services, energy, raw materials, etc.After the government’s attitude gradually became clear, the performance of the performance of listed companies continued to be renovated, so it was gradually released to consumption, the Internet, industry and other cyclical sectors.In the next stage of the layout ideas, industry configuration focuses on balanced, and continues to dig a good company with valuable security margins from bottom to top.
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