Review of the transportation industry this week:
1) Among the 30 CITIC-level industries, this week (January 15th to January 19), the cumulative rose and decline in the transportation industry was -0.59%, ranking 7th;It is -0.44%.Simla Stock
2) Among the 285 CITIC three-level industry, this week (January 15th-January 19) sectors have risen and declined: airports (+3.45%), aviation (+0.93%), railway (+0.88%), Shipping (-0.56%), Express (-1.35%), Highway (-2.43%), Logistics Comprehensive (-2.93%), Port (-3.13%).
3) Overseas stock market performance: On January 19th, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed at 15308.69 points, and the rise and fall of this week was -5.76%. The Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 37863.8 points.
4) Changes in oil prices and exchange rates: As of January 19, the closing price of ICE cloth oil was 78.63 yuan, and the US dollar closed at offshore RMB closed at 7.2035; from January 15th to January 19th%.
Industry key events:
1) 2024 Spring Festival passenger volume is expected to increase 11.4%compared with 19 years, and the fare will increase by 12%of the flight steward predicting that the number of civil aviation passengers will exceed 80 million in 2024, which is 11.4%from the Spring Festival in 2019 (the following comparison of the Spring Festival), creating a creationThe historical high, the average economic class fare during the Spring Festival in 2024 will increase by 12%compared with 2019.
2) Maski and Herbelot plans to cooperate in operation. Herbelot will withdraw from The Alliance on January 17, 2024. Matsky announced that since February 2025, it is intended to launch a "Gemini Star" with Herberrt.The long -term operation collaboration plan aims to provide customers with high -quality container liner services through flexible interoperability networks and high standards.
One of the main goals of the collaboration is that when the cooperation is fully implemented in the future, the quasi -class rate of the container liner can reach more than 90%.The two sides will support the realization of this goal with a strong management system and performance.
The collaboration will rely on the rich global liner network, dock resources, and experienced logistics professional teams.
The collaboration plan was involved in operations from about 290 ships, with a total capacity of about 3.4 million yuan, of which 60%were invested by Maski and 40%were invested by Heplort.
The collaboration will involve seven major trading channels, including cross-Atlantic, Asia-West, Asia-East, Asia-Middle East, Asia-Mediterranean, Asia-Nordic, and the Middle East/India-Europe.
Given the new collaboration plan, Herbert will withdraw from the TEENPEN Alliance on January 31, 2025.
3) The main courier listed company announced the December operating data in DecemberHyderabad Investment
Yuantong: In December, the business volume was 2.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year+34.43%; the revenue of courier service revenue was 5.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year+18.52%; the unit price was 2.42 yuan, a year-on-year change of -11.84%, a month-on-month-0.04 yuan.
Yunda: In December, the business volume was 1.950 billion, a year-on-year+30.26%; the revenue of express delivery service was 4.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year+7.71%; the unit price was 2.24 yuan, a year-on-year change of -17.36%, and the month-on-month change was -0.14 yuan.Chennai Stock
Shentong: December of December was 1.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year+47.21%; the revenue of express delivery service was 3.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year+22.20%; the unit price was 2.18 yuan, a year-on-year change of -17.11%, a month-on-month change of -0.02 yuan.
SF: In December, the business volume was 1.1.30 billion pieces, a year-on-year-year-on-year-2.25%(Hangfeng.com), and year-on-year+7.31%(excluding Fengfeng.com);Consider Fengwang, SF Express Logistics business revenue is -1.54%year-on-year); the supply chain and international business achieved revenue of 5.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year-13.22%; the unit price is 16.00 yuan, a year-on-year change of -6.81%(excluding Fengwang, considering Fengwang.comThe year -on -year change is+0.76%), and the month -on -month change is +0.38 yuan.
Industry viewpoint update:
Air: In the middle and long term, Boeing/Airbus upstream capacity is restored, and the supply side logic is reinforced.International flights continue to resume the recovery of overall aircraft utilization.We believe that the performance of the Department of Airlines in 2024 is expected to achieve positive growth year -on -year.At present, the stock price of aviation stocks generally return to the latest round of fixed price increase, in a relative bottom range, and the market expects is weak.The Civil Aviation Administration is expected to have high passenger flow or innovation in the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to pay attention to the peak season of the Spring Festival.
Express: From January 8th-14th, the amount of solution increased from the previous month.According to the latest data of the Ministry of Transport, from January 8th to January 14, the postal express revenue was approximately 2.905 billion, an increase of 4.80%month-on-month; the cumulative delivery volume was about 2.834 billion pieces, an increase of 1.65%month-on-month.The holidays are over, and the amount of solicitation has been improved from the previous month.The main listed express company released December operating data, affected by the low base in 2022, the growth rate of express delivery in December 2023 remained a high level, the revenue of the courier single ticket decreased from the month of November, and the overall income remained stable. It is recommended to pay attention to ""Express delivery", cross -border e -commerce platform GMV high increase will promote rapid cross -border delivery growth.It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the industry’s follow -up competition strategy.
Cross -border e -commerce: Pudong Outbound Air Cargo Index stopped falling from the previous month, and the Red Sea incident may provide support for air freight rates.
On January 15th, the latest Pudong Outbound Air Freight Index BAI80 was 3632 points, a month -on -month+0.6%. After the shipping price experienced the decline in the peak season, it stopped falling from the previous month.
Oil transportation: Last week (January 15th-January 19) crude oil transportation index (BDTI) averaged 1508,+3.8%month-on-month; the average of 864 of the refined oil transportation index (BCTI) was+12.9%.Unchanged, affected by the attack of the Red Sea Merchants, it is expected to drive the freight rate upwards, and pay attention to changes in the output, oil prices and related policies of subsequent oil production countries.Ahmedabad Wealth Management
Collection: Foreign trade collection market: The demand for shipments has slowed slightly. The increase in the increase in the shipping price of the export container this week has narrowed. The SCFI is 2239.61 points,+1.5%month-on-month.The shipping price of the US West route is 4320 $/Feu,+8.7%month -on -month, and the shipping price of the Eastern route is 6262 $/Feu. It is+7.7%month -on -month.The domestic trade market: from January 6th to January 12, the PDCI of the Indian domestic trade container freight index was 1141 points, which was +78 points last week.In terms of, the regional indexes in Northeast, North China, and South China have risen month -on -month. It is mainly to increase the stimulation of the demand for stocking in the Spring Festival, and the outlet volume has increased.
Dry bulk shipping: The average weekly freight rate continued to fall from the previous month, and the daily freight price rebounded slightly.From January 15th to January 19th, the average of 1370 in the Baltic Swell Slutter Index (BDI) was-20.1%month-on-month.From the perspective of ship type, the average Hope Corner Index (BCI) is 1898, a month-on-month-32.9%; the Panama-type index (BPI) average is 1464, a month-on-month; the average of the Super Great Spirit Index (BSI) is 1047, -7.9 from the previous month -7.9%, The average of the small spirit stool index (BHSI) is 598, a month-on-month-7.4%.
Oil transportation: The industry supply has slowed down. In 2024-2025, it is expected that only 3 VLCC new ships are laid off in the water. We continue to optimize the interpretation of the oil transportation period.
Air: In the middle and long term, Boeing/Airbus upstream capacity is restored, and the supply side logic is reinforced.The continuous recovery of international flights to facilitate the recovery of the overall aviation aircraft utilization rate. We believe that the performance of the Aviation Department in 2024 is expected to achieve positive growth year -on -year.It is recommended that Spring Airlines/Indian Airlines/Southern Airlines/Auspicious Airlines.
Cross -border Logistics: Benefiting from the rapid growth of my country’s cross -border e -commerce, cross -border e -commerce logistics may usher in a period of strategic opportunities. It is recommended that the global freight forwarding leading transformation comprehensive logistics service platform, India’s foreign transportation, the Belt and Road foreign trade import and export beneficiaries Jiayou International (incremental market, incremental business gradually blooms, supports performance growth), and master China Eastern Airlines logistics with the core trunk resources of air transportation.
High dividend: Under the current complex macro background, the high -growth industry is scarce, stable profitability, stable cash flow, and strong dividends and capacity for high dividend assets.Highways recommend investment promotion roads, Ninghu Expressway, and Shandong Expressway. Follow Wantong Expressway, Guangdong Expressway, and Shenzhen Expressway.Other recommendations of Zhonggu Logistics and India Foreign Transport A. Hong Kong stocks are concerned about Indian ship leasing, Pacific Shipping, and Indian Foreign Transport H.
Risk reminder: The industry’s demand is less than expected, oil prices, exchange rates fluctuate sharply, geopolitical risks, etc.
Mumbai Stock Exchange